Where is trade most likely to be disrupted in the railway industry from the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had large knock-on effects on global trade. Energy prices have spiked, and the sharp rise in wheat has prompted fears of a food crisis.

Although rising energy prices already have a knock-on effect on many industries, oil, gas and wheat aren’t the only items traded out of Russia and Ukraine. Many nearby nations will also be feeling direct supply chain disruption in other industries, including the railway industry.

With Ukraine, trade has become more difficult as supply lines have been blocked, and many industries have struggled due to bombings and a lack of labour as people have fled the country or joined the military.

Many countries and companies have also ceased trading with Russia, either due to sanctions or business choices. However, not all countries will have ceased trading.

Not including trade between the two nations, within the drinks manufacturing sector, around 1.2% of global imports of railway, tramway locomotives, rolling-stock and parts thereof; railway or tramway track fixtures and fittings and parts thereof; mechanical (including electro-mechanical) traffic signalling equipment of all kinds comes from Ukraine.

That’s followed by signalling, safety or traffic control equipment; for railways or tramways – excluding those of heading no. 8608 – (0.6%), and railway or tramway sleepers (cross-ties) of wood (0.2%).

Looking at global exports to Russia, the most-traded commodities are railway, tramway locomotives, rolling-stock and parts thereof; railway or tramway track fixtures and fittings and parts thereof; mechanical (including electro-mechanical) traffic signalling equipment of all kinds (1.9%).

That’s followed by railway or tramway sleepers (cross-ties) of wood (1.3%), and signalling apparatus; parts of safety, traffic control equipment for railways, tramways, roads, inland waterways, airfields, parking facilities, port instalments – excluding those of heading no. 8608 – (0.7%).

When it comes to the railway industry, the country that has the largest proportion of imports from Ukraine is the Republic Of Moldova (82.1% of the country’s railway industry imports worldwide).

That's followed by Belarus (33%), and Georgia (25.7%).

From Russia, the countries that import the most are Republic Of Moldova (74.1%), Kazakhstan (72.3%), and Mongolia (54.8%).